The Diagonal of Growth
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Written by
Dec 6, 2023
5 mins

Where do we go from here?

When I meet with clients, attend conferences and look to fly the flag for HKEX internationally, the key discussion is almost always the same: what is the outlook for the world economy?

This is without doubt the right question to be asking and given what the world has experienced recently – volatile markets, high inflation, geopolitical tensions, and fears of global fragmentation and recession – it is also understandable. These factors undoubtedly cloud the short-term and impact markets day-to-day.

A new framework for prosperity

But looking further ahead, I’m convinced the outlook is bright. I see new possibilities, a new framework for prosperity is emerging that I think of as the ‘diagonal of growth’.

On recent travels to Mainland China, South East Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and South America I have been seeing rapid, and in some cases, tectonic changes in technology and innovation, in broader society and in the allocation of capital.


I see new possibilities, a new framework for prosperity is emerging that I think of as the ‘diagonal of growth’.
70% of global growth in 2024 will come from Asia, the Middle East, Africa and South America

The East-West nexus of growth that has defined decades past is evolving.

In 2024 Asia, the Middle East, Africa and South America, will account for approximately 70% of global growth, according to the IMF, indicating the growing influence of these regions that, put together, line up diagonally across the globe.

There is much talk already about the growing power of the “Global South”; and others are highlighting the evolving shift in economic power, from West to East. This is true. But a new corridor – this diagonal of growth including Asia, the Middle East, Africa and South America provides an exciting new framework for global growth.

From our perspective in financial markets, the significance of this changing landscape is considerable.

If you look at the Middle East alone by way of example, the opportunities are immense.


The regions along this diagonal of growth have many of the building blocks to create a new era of prosperity, such as vast water resources and biodiversity, plus strengths in industries such as food, biotechnology and commodities.

The huge capital pools in the Middle East and China can potentially propel the next phase of global growth

Sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East currently have AUM of around USD 4 trillion - and this is expected to grow past USD 10 trillion by 2030.

These funds are looking for returns and diversification opportunities and, when combined with the growing levels of interest in international markets from onshore investors in China – a key part of what I call the Big Bang of Finance – the combined power of capital pools in China and the Middle East have colossal potential to propel the next phase of global growth.


Diagonal of growth = the diagonal of everything

The regions along this diagonal of growth have many of the building blocks to create a new era of prosperity, such as vast water resources and biodiversity, plus strengths in industries such as food, biotechnology and commodities. They also have growing populations, expanding middle classes, and the capacity and know-how for ground-breaking innovations and technological advances.

In a world where demand for food is expected to increase as the global population rises to an estimated 9.7 billion in 2050, South America’s rich biodiversity and diverse range of crops means it is positioned well as a food superpower of the future. Similarly, the vast deposits of lithium, copper, cobalt, silver and graphite in South America will be needed to feed the huge, expected demand for critical minerals and metals that go into electric batteries as we embark on a sustainability transition.

Africa combines a wealth of resources with a huge demographic dividend. As the world grapples with ageing populations and shrinking workforces, Africa’s working-age population is expected to grow from 670 million in 2022 to approximately 1.25 billion by 2050.

As well as prospects from economic diversification in the Middle East, there are both the huge existing reserves of oil and gas and the huge potential from new, renewable energy sources such as solar and hydrogen in the region.

And in Southeast Asia and China they have fast-growing middle classes, as well as exciting new hotbeds of innovation in areas such as biotechnology, AI and new energy. Southeast Asia, for example, has more than 50 unicorns, and many others that we call “soonicorns” – companies that will soon become unicorns.

When combined with the enthusiasm and long-term thinking I am hearing and seeing across the regions within this diagonal of growth, the potential opportunities are huge.

If we can channel our know-how, apply our expertise, offer our support and drive a convergence in GDP per capita from the average of around USD 7,500 measured across Africa, South America, the Middle East, India, South East Asia and China, toward the USD 41,000 measured in Europe and the USD 80,000 registered in the United States, the impact on the world economy could be considerable: this could significantly lift living standards for millions and create a new era of global prosperity.

But to realise this vision, these regions within the diagonal of growth need connectivity to match capital with opportunities.


But to realise this vision, these regions within the diagonal of growth need connectivity to match capital with opportunities...And that is where Hong Kong comes in.

Hong Kong: a city made for fueling the dreams of the 21st century

And that is where Hong Kong comes in.

As an IFC and global superconnector, Hong Kong has an unrivalled role to play in helping the flow of capital across the world and driving global growth. Trusted, connected, established, international and experienced, it is a city made for fueling the dreams of the 21st century.

Hong Kong’s financial environment is familiar and trusted, with markets that are diverse and vibrant. At HKEX, we are continuously working to make them more attractive, such as the recent reforms of our listing rules to attract companies at the frontiers of new technology and by enhancing our unique Connect programmes in multiple ways, to connect China and the world more closely.

Our recent Connect enhancement allowing international, Hong Kong-listed companies to join Southbound Stock Connect is a potential gamechanger and a perfect example of this constant, progressive evolution.

In Hong Kong, international issuers now have access to two investor bases – but in a single market: China’s onshore investor base which sees liquidity of RMB 1 trillion a day, and the global investor base and international financial community of Hong Kong.

No other market in the world can offer that.


More connectivity, not less

At HKEX, our vision to provide the world with more connectivity is front and centre in our strategy, underpinning our recent efforts to open new offices around the world, advance our listing regime, develop an increasingly diverse product ecosystem here in Hong Kong and establish partnerships around the world.

We have actively been building connectivity between Hong Kong and the Middle East, including signing an MoU with Saudi Tadawul Group in February 2023. With its central geographic position and proximity to the North, South, East and West – the Middle East is also an important superconnector, and we see great synergies from working together.

Last week’s listing in Hong Kong of the first Saudi Arabian ETF in Asia Pacific is one example of how such connectivity is fueling collaboration, cementing Hong Kong’s position as the leading ETF marketplace in Asia and giving investors the opportunity to capture the immense economic potential in Saudi Arabia, particularly in financial, basic materials and energy industries.


Looking forward, I am excited about how we can use our expertise to take the diagonal of growth to the next level when we bring FII Priority to Hong Kong. FII has chosen Hong Kong for its first Asia event, underlining Hong Kong’s position as a vibrant superconnector linking, driving, and accelerating flows of capital, trade, people and ideas around the world.

At the event, leading voices from business, governmental, civil society, and technology will come together to connect, debate and exchange ideas about how to build a future we all want to be part of.

And with so many possibilities within the new diagonal of growth, I’m excited to be part of this major new summit. It reflects our own beliefs and convictions at HKEX, as we look to better connect across markets, economies and societies, helping build a world where collaboration and innovation can help find solutions to global challenges.

As the world looks for new opportunities, new horizons and new prosperity, Hong Kong’s superconnector role won’t just endure, it will be essential: facilitating and connecting the new diagonal of growth and advancing our shared future.